What Is The Point In A Point?

[pjdaly]

I know I was not the only one to walk away from The Street yesterday, shell-shocked, zombied, and uncomfortably numb (very, very uncomfortably numb, if Dave Gilmour and co will permit . . .)

I am sure Blue Nige was bewildered, Wintergreen was woe-begotten, Hadrian was harrassed and Spirit of 1990 wishes we were indeed back there.

But the thought occurred to me later that, despite the calamity of such a late concession, it was what happened at the other end that is even more alarming. Or, what didn't happen at the other end, to be more accurate.

Yes, notwithstanding the fact that a point is always, always, always better than nul points, one point from a fixture such as that one yesterday would have still been massively unsatisfactory. With 13 games now left, an average of a point a game would get us to 40 and I have grave doubts that that would be enough. Maybe? Maybe not? Harrogate and Newport are both picking up a bit now.

Let us be honest here . . . we will lose some of our remaining matches. That means we must win a few and yesterday, against a team doing poorly just recently, simply had to be one of those occasions where we got three points. Not no points, not one point - - - three points. But it's not just the pointlessness we came away with yesterday, it's the fact that we never even came close to laying a glove on the Gills goal. To fail so abysmally at home against a team that has struggled recently is beyond the pale. We have to win some games, and we have to probably win against the lesser teams we face because we will probably lose some to the better teams. Let's be honest - - - yesterday we "attacked" (???) like a team that deserves to go down. I don't think we would have scored yesterday even if the Gillingham team from October 1961 had turned up (those of a certain great age will understand what I mean).

I remember the springtime of 1972 and how we abjectly surrendered our League position entering the final furlong, with embarrassing scorelines such as 0-3 at home to Brentford, 0-4 at home to Darlington, and, last but not least, a 7-1 spanking away at Exeter. Yet many of our fans felt we were hard done by in losing our League status! That team did not deserve to be saved, it was so gutless. We did have some worthy ones though . . . Josh Gordon is eerily reminiscent of 1972's Mick Hollis. Neither is/was a natural striker or goalscorer but each can be associated with working their socks off every match. Yet despite Josh's admirable running yesterday, we never got close to scoring a goal.

I cannot square what I saw yesterday with what Dino said after the Fleetwood match. I agreed with him when he said that at half-time in that match he told the players they should not sit back on their lead but go after a third goal. But yesterday we played as if we didn't want to go after a first goal - - - and that's at home against opponents that have been doing badly just lately. I just don't get it. Yesterday was a must-win.

So, what is the point in a point (never mind, none) in one of the matches we had to get three from? What is the point of this post? Probably none really, as the point will be lost. But if we can't get the point that we need three points from some of our remaining matches then we are pointing only one way . . . downwards into non-league. I don't fancy another 48 years in non-league. It would mean I'd be 118 the next time I see a FL game at Holker Street and I might have gone off "the beautiful game" (?) by then.

[theotherbarrow]

I see your point PJ, it's a very valid point, and one we should certainly be addressing........ troubling times.....

[Cokey]

You are right PJ. We should’ve gone for the win.

Very strange listening to Dino’s interview, where he talks of encouraging the players to be brave and on the front foot. Getting forward and at them.

The performance from the players was anything but that!

So defensive and negative.

3 strikers on the field, and every single one of them inside our own box, every time they got an attacking throw in, free kick or corner.

Not a single shot on target. Not one.

If playing that way deserves anything, I’ll retire to Bedlam.

[Jonty]

Believe me a point could be crucial.

I’ve just spent the best part of the afternoon running likelihood final table modelling that has factored in each teams remaining fixtures, form, remaining 6 pointers between these teams and the final “projected” table is going to give me sleepless nights. This is how it could unfold,…..running monte carlo simulation, something to do with poisson distribution and factoring in form, PPG, GD

factored in:
• Current points and table
• Goal difference
• Remaining fixtures
• Home / away form balance
• Six-pointer volatility and key swing games (Newport v Crawley, Newport v Harrogate, Barrow v Newport
• Recent form (last-6)
• Opponent strength (current PPG tiers)
• Probability modelling for 12+ scenarios

the most probable outcome:

Current table

Team Points GD
Crawley 28 -23
Barrow 27 -18
Harrogate 27 -27
Newport 25 -28

Expected points from remaining games, Weighted by fixture difficulty + last 6 form.

From the adjusted model:
• Barrow: ~9–11 pts most likely
• Crawley: ~8–10 pts most likely
• Newport: ~10–13 pts most likely
• Harrogate: ~11–14 pts most likely

Newport and Harrogate actually rate slightly better than Barrow/Crawley on form-adjusted run-in difficulty.

-Harrogate: have best outlook of the four in the model (better recent form + run-in profile).
-Barrow: next best, mainly because they’ve got the best GD buffer (-18) which is massive if it finishes level on points.
-Crawley: the swing team — they’re not as disadvantaged as Newport, but they’re more at risk than Barrow because their GD is weaker than Barrow (-23 vs -18), and their recent form is poor.
- Newport: most exposed because they’ve got the weakest GD (-28) and are starting from fewer points.

in practical terms:
Crawley’s most likely finish is either just above Newport or just below Barrow, and they’re the one most likely to swap places depending on 2–3 results (especially any six-pointer outcomes).

Based on full model runs:
• Newport relegated: ~42%
• Crawley relegated: ~31%
• Barrow relegated: ~18%
• Harrogate relegated: ~9%

Key swing games that will have biggest impact on table-

• Newport v Crawley
• Newport v Harrogate
• Barrow v Oldham
• Barrow v Newport (final day)

Those four fixtures will likely decide it.

Most probable final table

21- Harrogate – 39 pts
22- Barrow – 37 pts (best GD buffer)
23- Crawley – 37 pts
24- Newport – 37 pts

Caveats: This is a probability model, not a certainty:
- It doesn’t fully price in fixture difficulty, injuries, or psychological “six-pointer” effects.
- GD remains in Barrow’s favour

Hold on to your hats folks. Be prepared.

[Barrow afc 2018]

Believe me a point could be crucial.

I’ve just spent the best part of the afternoon running likelihood final table modelling that has factored in each teams remaining fixtures, form, remaining 6 pointers between these teams and the final “projected” table is going to give me sleepless nights. This is how it could unfold,…..running monte carlo simulation, something to do with poisson distribution and factoring in form, PPG, GD

factored in:
• Current points and table
• Goal difference
• Remaining fixtures
• Home / away form balance
• Six-pointer volatility and key swing games (Newport v Crawley, Newport v Harrogate, Barrow v Newport
• Recent form (last-6)
• Opponent strength (current PPG tiers)
• Probability modelling for 12+ scenarios

the most probable outcome:

Current table

Team Points GD
Crawley 28 -23
Barrow 27 -18
Harrogate 27 -27
Newport 25 -28

Expected points from remaining games, Weighted by fixture difficulty + last 6 form.

From the adjusted model:
• Barrow: ~9–11 pts most likely
• Crawley: ~8–10 pts most likely
• Newport: ~10–13 pts most likely
• Harrogate: ~11–14 pts most likely

Newport and Harrogate actually rate slightly better than Barrow/Crawley on form-adjusted run-in difficulty.

-Harrogate: have best outlook of the four in the model (better recent form + run-in profile).
-Barrow: next best, mainly because they’ve got the best GD buffer (-18) which is massive if it finishes level on points.
-Crawley: the swing team — they’re not as disadvantaged as Newport, but they’re more at risk than Barrow because their GD is weaker than Barrow (-23 vs -18), and their recent form is poor.
- Newport: most exposed because they’ve got the weakest GD (-28) and are starting from fewer points.

in practical terms:
Crawley’s most likely finish is either just above Newport or just below Barrow, and they’re the one most likely to swap places depending on 2–3 results (especially any six-pointer outcomes).

Based on full model runs:
• Newport relegated: ~42%
• Crawley relegated: ~31%
• Barrow relegated: ~18%
• Harrogate relegated: ~9%

Key swing games that will have biggest impact on table-

• Newport v Crawley
• Newport v Harrogate
• Barrow v Oldham
• Barrow v Newport (final day)

Those four fixtures will likely decide it.

Most probable final table

21- Harrogate – 39 pts
22- Barrow – 37 pts (best GD buffer)
23- Crawley – 37 pts
24- Newport – 37 pts

Caveats: This is a probability model, not a certainty:
- It doesn’t fully price in fixture difficulty, injuries, or psychological “six-pointer” effects.
- GD remains in Barrow’s favour

Hold on to your hats folks. Be prepared.

Good effort that Jonty I truly hope somehow we can get to safely before our last game against Newport.

Because if we need something from that it will be our worst case scenario we’ve just got to hope beyond hope Dino can pull off a miracle.

[Jonty]

Obviously some key assumptions made- each team returning the same form as their last 6. Barrow winning the game in hand v Oldham and beating Newport on the last day. Any team that goes on a mini run, changes it all.

If it is all on that last game then it will be unbearable.

[saltcellar]

The bottom 2 positions the last 5 seasons and relegated clubs have been:-

2024-25
Morecambe 36 Carlisle 42
2023-24
Forest Green 42 Sutton United 42
2022-23
Rochdale 38 Hartlepool 43
2021-22
Scunthorpe 26 Oldham 38
2020-21
Grimsby 43 Southend United 45

So on that basis, 37 points might no be enough.

[Jonty]

The bottom 2 positions the last 5 seasons and relegated clubs have been:-

2024-25
Morecambe 36 Carlisle 42
2023-24
Forest Green 42 Sutton United 42
2022-23
Rochdale 38 Hartlepool 43
2021-22
Scunthorpe 26 Oldham 38
2020-21
Grimsby 43 Southend United 45

So on that basis, 37 points might no be enough.

The way it’s gone this season, on track for 40 points being safe. Possibly as low as 38/39 given the form and PPG of the four teams at the bottom. As bad as it is, it’s still entirely in our own hands.

[Steeley]

Last 2 games with seconds to go we had a point in each. Could’ve been above Crawley with our 2 games in hand I’d have taken those 2 points!

As we run out of games however we need to look at winning them…

[HenneysKnee]

Last 2 games with seconds to go we had a point in each. Could’ve been above Crawley with our 2 games in hand I’d have taken those 2 points!

As we run out of games however we need to look at winning them…

Exactly this, if we’d taken a point Saturday we’d have 1 team between us and the bottom 2, now we don’t

[Steeley]

Last 2 games with seconds to go we had a point in each. Could’ve been above Crawley with our 2 games in hand I’d have taken those 2 points!

As we run out of games however we need to look at winning them…

Exactly this, if we’d taken a point Saturday we’d have 1 team between us and the bottom 2, now we don’t

Not to mention if we just didn’t lose against Harrogate and again late agains Crawley there would be breathing space.
Quite incredible how bad our form has been apart from Colchester.

[Bingley Blue]

Believe me a point could be crucial.

I’ve just spent the best part of the afternoon running likelihood final table modelling that has factored in each teams remaining fixtures, form, remaining 6 pointers between these teams and the final “projected” table is going to give me sleepless nights. This is how it could unfold,…..running monte carlo simulation, something to do with poisson distribution and factoring in form, PPG, GD

factored in:
• Current points and table
• Goal difference
• Remaining fixtures
• Home / away form balance
• Six-pointer volatility and key swing games (Newport v Crawley, Newport v Harrogate, Barrow v Newport
• Recent form (last-6)
• Opponent strength (current PPG tiers)
• Probability modelling for 12+ scenarios

the most probable outcome:

Current table

Team Points GD
Crawley 28 -23
Barrow 27 -18
Harrogate 27 -27
Newport 25 -28

Expected points from remaining games, Weighted by fixture difficulty + last 6 form.

From the adjusted model:
• Barrow: ~9–11 pts most likely
• Crawley: ~8–10 pts most likely
• Newport: ~10–13 pts most likely
• Harrogate: ~11–14 pts most likely

Newport and Harrogate actually rate slightly better than Barrow/Crawley on form-adjusted run-in difficulty.

-Harrogate: have best outlook of the four in the model (better recent form + run-in profile).
-Barrow: next best, mainly because they’ve got the best GD buffer (-18) which is massive if it finishes level on points.
-Crawley: the swing team — they’re not as disadvantaged as Newport, but they’re more at risk than Barrow because their GD is weaker than Barrow (-23 vs -18), and their recent form is poor.
- Newport: most exposed because they’ve got the weakest GD (-28) and are starting from fewer points.

in practical terms:
Crawley’s most likely finish is either just above Newport or just below Barrow, and they’re the one most likely to swap places depending on 2–3 results (especially any six-pointer outcomes).

Based on full model runs:
• Newport relegated: ~42%
• Crawley relegated: ~31%
• Barrow relegated: ~18%
• Harrogate relegated: ~9%

Key swing games that will have biggest impact on table-

• Newport v Crawley
• Newport v Harrogate
• Barrow v Oldham
• Barrow v Newport (final day)

Those four fixtures will likely decide it.

Most probable final table

21- Harrogate – 39 pts
22- Barrow – 37 pts (best GD buffer)
23- Crawley – 37 pts
24- Newport – 37 pts

Caveats: This is a probability model, not a certainty:
- It doesn’t fully price in fixture difficulty, injuries, or psychological “six-pointer” effects.
- GD remains in Barrow’s favour

Hold on to your hats folks. Be prepared.

[Bingley Blue]

Believe me a point could be crucial.

I’ve just spent the best part of the afternoon running likelihood final table modelling that has factored in each teams remaining fixtures, form, remaining 6 pointers between these teams and the final “projected” table is going to give me sleepless nights. This is how it could unfold,…..running monte carlo simulation, something to do with poisson distribution and factoring in form, PPG, GD

factored in:
• Current points and table
• Goal difference
• Remaining fixtures
• Home / away form balance
• Six-pointer volatility and key swing games (Newport v Crawley, Newport v Harrogate, Barrow v Newport
• Recent form (last-6)
• Opponent strength (current PPG tiers)
• Probability modelling for 12+ scenarios

the most probable outcome:

Current table

Team Points GD
Crawley 28 -23
Barrow 27 -18
Harrogate 27 -27
Newport 25 -28

Expected points from remaining games, Weighted by fixture difficulty + last 6 form.

From the adjusted model:
• Barrow: ~9–11 pts most likely
• Crawley: ~8–10 pts most likely
• Newport: ~10–13 pts most likely
• Harrogate: ~11–14 pts most likely

Newport and Harrogate actually rate slightly better than Barrow/Crawley on form-adjusted run-in difficulty.

-Harrogate: have best outlook of the four in the model (better recent form + run-in profile).
-Barrow: next best, mainly because they’ve got the best GD buffer (-18) which is massive if it finishes level on points.
-Crawley: the swing team — they’re not as disadvantaged as Newport, but they’re more at risk than Barrow because their GD is weaker than Barrow (-23 vs -18), and their recent form is poor.
- Newport: most exposed because they’ve got the weakest GD (-28) and are starting from fewer points.

in practical terms:
Crawley’s most likely finish is either just above Newport or just below Barrow, and they’re the one most likely to swap places depending on 2–3 results (especially any six-pointer outcomes).

Based on full model runs:
• Newport relegated: ~42%
• Crawley relegated: ~31%
• Barrow relegated: ~18%
• Harrogate relegated: ~9%

Key swing games that will have biggest impact on table-

• Newport v Crawley
• Newport v Harrogate
• Barrow v Oldham
• Barrow v Newport (final day)

Those four fixtures will likely decide it.

Most probable final table

21- Harrogate – 39 pts
22- Barrow – 37 pts (best GD buffer)
23- Crawley – 37 pts
24- Newport – 37 pts

Caveats: This is a probability model, not a certainty:
- It doesn’t fully price in fixture difficulty, injuries, or psychological “six-pointer” effects.
- GD remains in Barrow’s favour

Hold on to your hats folks. Be prepared.

Why is Barrow Oldham a key swing game. Oldham are safe. Surely next week’s game against Bristol Rovers will be more likely to have an effect on relegation issues as if we win, Bristol Rovers will be right in the mire with us.

[Jeeby]

Im sure you all remember the "must win" last game of the season at Holker street in April 2018 against a Chester 2nd string to avoid relegation from the National league, that didn't go too well, but we were bailed out by other results. When push comes to shove, some players just roll over.

[Barrow afc 2018]

Im sure you all remember the "must win" last game of the season at Holker street in April 2018 against a Chester 2nd string to avoid relegation from the National league, that didn't go too well, but we were bailed out by other results. When push comes to shove, some players just roll over.

Losing must win games (especially at home) is part of our DNA somehow we’ve got to change this.